Since 2018, increasing political repression and economic decline under the rule of President Daniel Ortega have driven hundreds of thousands from Nicaragua.
Central America has long been a significant source of mixed migration northwards towards the US, with gang violence, deepening poverty and climate change all contributing to this movement. However, in recent years, the region has also evolved into a major area of transit: while in the past migration and displacement made up of migrants from countries within the Northern Triangle (El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras), recently the increasing numbers of people originating from countries in Africa and Asia are also travelling through to the Mexico-US border.
According to estimates, over one million people will flee Nicaragua, primarily to Costa Rica and the United States. As of the end of 2023, some 1.5 million Nicaraguans (around 22 percent of the population) were living outside the country.
Remittances from Nicaraguans Mark New Record
Another study conducted in 2024 says 87.3 percent of Nicaraguans surveyed stated that their income does not allow them to cover all their monthly and daily expenses.
According to the country’s central bank, in 2023 a record haul of about $4.24 billion in remittances was sent by Nicaraguans residing outside the country, 47 percent more than the amount sent home during the same period a year before.
While as much as half of the population would like to leave, Nicaragua has also emerged as a stepping stone for irregular migration transiting through its territory, facilitated by its visa-free arrangements with countries including Cuba and Haiti.
A large proportion of nationals from these countries intercepted at the US-Mexico border in 2023 appear to have used this route, flying from Havana or Port-au-Prince to Managua before continuing on north, though at the end of October 2023, Haiti suspended charter flights to Nicaragua.
According to VOA News, more than 260 flights had departed from gang-controlled Haiti and are believed to have conveyed up to 31,000 migrants to Nicaragua just during a two-month period in 2023.
This number of migrants represents nearly 60 percent of all U.S.-Mexico border Haitian arrivals, said Manuel Orozco, director of the migration, remittances, and development program at the Inter-American Dialogue. Experts have said that seats on charter flights to Nicaragua can range from $3,000 to $5,000.
The country that became a popular destination for migrants because it doesn’t require a visa is also serving as an essential gateway for people from countries in Africa (such as Mauritania, Cameroon, and Senegal) and Asia (including Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, and Vietnam) to reach the Americas.
Amidst heightened diplomatic tensions with the US, Ortega has been accused of “weaponising” migration to increase pressure at its borders. Ortega, a longtime nemesis of the United States, has deliberately made it easier for migrants to bypass the Darien by flying directly into his country and then heading north overland.
In May 2024, the US government imposed fresh sanctions on senior officials in Nicaragua, citing the country’s “permissive-by-design” migration policies as a key factor. Authorities are reportedly selling four-day visas to arrivals at the airport, generating a lucrative income stream while compelling migrants to move on swiftly northwards.
Gang Violence a Significant Driver of Migration
In El Salvador, as in much of Central America, chronic gang violence has long been a significant driver of emigration, with tens of thousands seeking to flee the country’s long-standing insecurity. However, in March 2022, following the massacre of 87 civilians – presumably selected at random – by criminal organisations over the space of one weekend, the government launched an unprecedented crackdown.
After declaring a 30-day state of emergency, repeatedly extended ever since, authorities arrested more than 70,000 suspected gang members. The effects have been mixed: while security has improved, enabling citizens to move more freely in areas that were previously off-limits because of gang activity, these measures have come at a price in terms of democracy and human rights.
Many suspects have been detained by police arbitrarily, based on their appearance or where they reside, with little or no respect for due process. The majority remain incarcerated, including thousands of individuals who have no proven affiliation with the gangs, in brutal, life-threatening conditions. Hundreds of prisoners have already perished since being detained.