British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron have announced the new UK-France Migrant Deal to tackle illegal migration across the Channel.
Dubbed the ‘One-In-One-Out Deal,’ the agreement involves the exchange of asylum seekers in France who can prove a family connection is in the UK with those in the UK who crossed seeking asylum but can prove no such connections. Those who have attempted to get into the UK in illegal ways before will not be granted entry.
Rising Numbers and the Danger of Crossing
The main idea behind the deal is deterrence. Small boat crossings have spiked this year, causing the death toll to rise as well.
As of July 10, 2025 , 21,690 migrants crossed the Channel in small boats, which represents a 54% increase compared to 2024’s 14,058 of the same period.
The area is busy with ships; strong currents carry the overweight dinghies far, but accidents frequently occur.
According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), 73 people have died attempting to cross in the past year, the highest recorded number within a year.
“We all agree that the situation in the Channel cannot go on as it is, so we’re bringing new tactics into play and a new intent to tackle illegal migration and break the business model of the criminal gangs,” Starmer stated.
Caught Between Frameworks
Since Brexit, the UK is not a part of the European Union or its asylum network. This means no access to the fingerprint database, which could tell whether arrivals have applied for asylum in the EU. If there was an application in progress, it would give the UK grounds to return the applicant to the EU instead of granting asylum.
The UK is also no longer subject to the Dublin Regulation, which determines which EU state is responsible for the applicant.
Another issue is the French participation in the Dublin Procedure, bringing a significant amount of criticism. For the EU’s south (Italy, Greece, Spain, Malta, and Cyprus), this means that the migrants may be returned to them from France, as the Dublin Procedure dictates migrants to be returned to the country where they entered the EU. But other EU nations are also upset at France for agreeing on a deal regarding an issue of shared competence within the EU.
How will the Deal Function?
Critics are increasingly worried as the specifics of the deal remain a mystery. Starmer stated that speaking of them would undermine “how this will operate.”
However, a pilot has been announced, with Starmer vowing it would begin “within weeks” with the return of 50 people per week (2,600 per year), which would account for roughly 6% of 2024’s total boat arrivals.
Each week, an average of 700 migrants arrive on small boats to British shores. If an average of 50 people is sent to France each week, it would account for one every 14 arrivals being returned.
As such, British officials are worried that the deal is nothing more than a political campaign for Keir Starmer’s plummeting approval. Others point out that he is seeking a new Rwanda deal, which he scrapped days after moving into 10 Downing Street.
Meanwhile, French officials fear that France would become a “return hub” for those the UK refuses with “minimal reciprocal elements.”
Previous Failures Signal Uncertain Future
While many experts hail the agreement as an encouraging sign of cooperation between post-Brexit Britain and an EU member state, others watch with caution as the base idea of the deal stands on shaky ground.
Calculating what deters migrants is increasingly difficult, as the information meant to deter asylum seekers is not guaranteed to reach them. Such policies do not address the driving reasons to migrate, such as conflict and poverty. Since asylum seekers tend to lack documentation, enforcing such laws is also difficult.
The previous government’s Rwanda Deal flopped as Rwanda was deemed an unsafe country to send vulnerable refugees to as it did not comply with the UN Refugee Convention.
The 2016 Turkey-EU agreement is also similar and yielded questionable results; only 2,140 people were returned to Türkiye from Greece, and 32,472 Syrian refugees were settled in EU member states as of 2023. This deal also failed because Türkiye was, many times, deemed to be an unsafe country. France will not meet such hurdles.
The UN has already given its approval to the pilot scheme, adding that while implementation is crucial and operational details “have yet to be disclosed,” they hailed the deal’s focus on protecting human lives and the shared responsibility demonstrated by those taking part.
But the Dublin Regulation also falters; Germany has requested fellow member states to take back migrants that entered the EU through their borders. Italy agreed to take back 4,477 from the previous year but never actually transferred them, according to Bild.
The Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF) reported Germany attempted to transfer 20,574 asylum requests to other states, but only 3,109 were returned.
Whether the deal will fail to tackle the migration numbers or function as intended is up to the strategy of implementation – yet unknown to the public.
