Last week, to curb migration numbers, public discontent, and the rise of the right-wing Reform UK, the Labour Government announced major changes in asylum policy.
The changes aim to settle the wide social dispute that caused a summer of riots in 2024 and mass anti-immigration protests during the summer of 2025.
The new system, based on Denmark’s highly controversial system, should alleviate the “huge pressure on communities” by reworking an “out of control” asylum system, according to Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood.
The New System: ‘Restoring Order and Control’
The basic idea is to increase removals and decrease arrivals. As such, people with refugee status will now have to reapply for their status every two and a half years, ending permanent refugee status. Every 30 months, each approved status is to be reviewed; if the refugee’s home country has been deemed safe to return to, they will be promptly returned to said country, regardless of whether their approved refugee status is still valid or not.
Refugees who arrive illegally will also have to remain in the UK for 20 years before being allowed to apply for indefinite leave to remain, which allows a path to citizenship.
The ‘right to family life’ enshrined in Article 8 of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) is to be modified to specifically only apply to immediate families, though experts say it is difficult to see how modifications will work “within the ECHR framework.” Family reunification will also be affected by this change, though it is unclear how exactly.
As removals are to be escalated, entire families and children will be returned to their home state, either incentivized by paying up to £3,000 or by force.
Welfare payments for refused asylum-seeking families will also be cut to incentivize leaving the UK.
For migrants in destitution, laws changing will mean their housing and financial support are no longer guaranteed. Benefits are to be prioritized for those who contribute to the economy and community. Asylum support, however, is to be slashed for those who work. Refugees will have access to public funds, but additional requirements are to be set for claiming benefits.
New legal routes will ensure migrants have an interest in avoiding the dangerous Channel crossing.
Visa applications from Angola, Namibia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo will not be granted, as the countries have obstructed the return of their criminals and illegal immigrants.
Fallout: Cost and Bureaucracy
If these changes are put into law, it wouldn’t only mean a major shift in principles for the UK but also a much more expensive system: the Refugee Council has warned the Home Secretary that the cost and bureaucracy of reviewing all refugee status every 30 months will be massive.
According to their calculations, the Home Office would carry out between 1.66 million and 1.9 million reviews over the first decade in a fully operational system. This would mean a cost would be somewhere between £1.1bn and £1.27bn, depending on the amount of protection losses during the review.
Madeleine Sumption, director of Oxford University’s Migration Observatory, said the “most uncertainty” in the plan is how the Home Office would send the migrants home, as this would also involve significant bureaucracy and contact with each home country.
Net Migration Is Decreasing
As of the May release of migration figures by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), net migration for 2024 was 431,000, representing a sharp decline from previous years, such as 2023’s historic high of 906,000.
November revisions came just after Mahmood’s announcement of the plans, announcing that the 2023 peak was higher, at 944,000. Net migration for 2024, however, was significantly lower at 345,000 – that is 20% lower than initially thought.
New estimates showed a more significant emigration of Brits as well; instead of the initial 77,000 estimated to have left in the year ending December 2024 about 257,000 are now estimated to have left.
Though the number of UK nationals returning has also increased, it is a smaller jump than that of UK nationals leaving. Instead of 60,000 returnees, ONS now estimates 143,000 returned.
Previous estimates were based on surveys, which have become inefficient; new estimates work with data from the Department for Work and Pensions.
Sectors Relying on Migrant Workers Worry
Many critics say the overhaul of the immigration system for both asylum seekers and legal migrants deter not just illegal migrants but those the UK needs most.
June changes to the immigration and visa system were devastating for many foreign-reliant sectors: the Prison Officers’ Association warned that hundreds of prison officers would be forced to leave due to a change in visa rules, stating that those paid below £41,700 would not be eligible for visa renewal. Most of those affected moved to the UK from African countries.
The National Health Service (NHS) is one of the most affected sectors: after the June changes, the Royal College of Nursing (RCN) condemned the new policies as “divisive and xenophobic” and ‘pandering’ to Reform UK.
At the time, Prof. Nicola Ranger, the RCN general secretary, told the Guardian, “Health and care services would cease to function without migrant nursing staff.” Praxis, a human rights charity, estimated that of the people on the new 10-year route to gaining settled status, 40% were healthcare workers.
A recent survey suggested that up to 50,000 nurses could leave the UK due to the change in settlement rules. Nursing leaders have called new immigration plans “immoral” and treat skilled migrants as “political footballs.”
Figures from the General Medical Council (GMC) show that overseas-trained doctors have also been leaving the UK: 4,880 doctors left in 2024, a 26% rise from 3,869 in 2023. NHS leaders blame the overall hostility towards migrants from the population as well as the government.
Despite this, the GMC also reports that a record of 20,060 foreign doctors joined the UK medical register in 2024. This means that there are twice as many doctors who qualified overseas in the register than doctors who qualified in the UK. The proportion of doctors working in the UK remained a stable 42% or 138,405 doctors.
“Any hardening of rhetoric and falling away of support could undermine the UK’s image as somewhere the brightest and the best from all over the would want to work,” said Charlie Massey, the GMC’s chief executive.
RNC also called on the government to cease anti-migrant rhetoric as racist incident reports surged by 55% over three years, with more than 1,000 this year compared to 700 in 2022.
