With the fall of the Assad regime many Syrian exiles in Germany say they want to return to their homeland once the situation there is stable. But seeing how substantial in number the Syrian diaspora is, it can have ramifications on the German economy.
The future of the large number of Syrians who fled Bashar al-Assad’s dictatorship and now reside in Germany has been a topic of discussion in the days following the abrupt end of his rule. It is evident that many Syrians, especially those who have obtained German citizenship, have a legal right to remain after some politicians initially called for their return. The German government says it will wait and see how the situation in Syria plays out, rejecting calls for any immediate repatriations.
However, as tens of thousands of Syrians who were uprooted by Assad’s oppressive government have expressed a desire to return and aid in the reconstruction of their homeland, a new reality has set in for a nation that now hosts almost a million Syrian citizens: how will Germany function without all those individuals working in vital positions?
Nearly 30% of female refugees in Germany are employed in social and cultural service fields, such as childcare and education.
Ten percent are employed in retail. Over one-fifth of male refugees are employed in manufacturing or logistics. According to the IAB, Syrians are also significantly represented in the construction, hospitality, and healthcare industries.
“These sectors have severe labor shortages,” Jaschke stated, citing a relatively low labor supply and a high demand for workers. “So, if these people left, Germany would really lose.”
A recent survey conducted by the IAB revealed that over 90% of Syrian-born refugees who came to Germany between 2013 and 2019 said they wished to remain there permanently. This raises the question of how many would now like to return. But given the most recent events in Syria, that might change.
Nearly 40% have resided here for at least 2015 years. Many are likely to stay because they are earning a living here, have established social networks, and many have brought their families,” Jaschke told Deutsche Welle.
Concern has also been voiced by the German Association of Senior Hospital Doctors. Syrian physicians are the mainstay of hospital care in rural areas. Things will be tight without them,” Michael Weber, president of the association, stated. He said he expects “a substantial proportion of the approximately 5,000 Syrian doctors in Germany will return to their homeland,” according to the Bild newspaper.
By the end of 2023, there were 5,758 Syrian physicians working in Germany, with about 5,000 of them working in German hospitals, according to the German Federal Doctor’s Association (Bundesärztekammer).
A “significant burden on the already-strained medical care situation in Germany” would result from the departure of Syrian doctors, according to Susanne Johna, the chair of the doctors’ union. Isabell Halletz, the managing director of the nurses’ union, also told Bild that “a return of these skilled workers would be a severe blow to aged care.” She went on to say that patients appreciated Syrian workers and they were well-integrated.
Given the ongoing chaos in Syria, where the main rebel group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), is fighting to form a caretaker government, the announcements were all the more disturbing.The situation was made worse by the seeming reversal of a major justification for Europe’s desire to accept Syrian citizens. Politicians at the time contended that Syrians would help alleviate severe labor market shortages in addition to meeting humanitarian needs.Despite the enormous demand for more workers, the European Union recently increased efforts to repatriate more refugees to their countries of origin prior to Assad’s removal, according to Anastasia Karatzas, a policy analyst at the Brussels-based European Policy Center (EPC) think tank.
In the EU, there is a pressing need to address both labor exploitation, particularly of undocumented migrant workers, and labor shortages. However, there is currently a chance that putting [refugee] returns first could take precedence over these other priorities, Karatzas told DW.