With the natural population declining since 2012 and migratory flows no longer predicted to sustain population growth after 2026, the European Union faces a structural demographic crisis, according to Euobserver.
In addition to a longer-term trend of flight from eastern Europe, the latest wave of Ukrainian refugees has contributed to the region’s economic stagnation and labour scarcity.
Is the EU ready for the growing demographic divide between its east and west?
Natural population: is Migration the Answer?
Although the EU’s overall population increased in 2023, it is unable to depend on its own natural population growth as it has been declining since 2012. The primary cause is the decreasing fertility rate, from 1.53 live births per woman in 2021 to 1.38 in 2023.
The population increased by 1.6 million people overall, averaging 448.5 million in 2023, but only 420.7 million were EU citizens. According to a Bruegel study, migration may start to decline as early as 2026 and is not anticipated to support EU population growth in the long run.
Covid-19 mortality has had a major impact on the population’s natural change, with the natural population decreasing by more than a million individuals annually. Following the start of the full-scale conflict in Ukraine, net migration – the difference between immigration and emigration – rose sharply and doubled between 2021 and 2022/2023.
In 2023, natural population growth declined in the majority of EU member states. The only countries with positive natural growth rates exceeding 1% were Ireland, Cyprus, and Luxembourg. However, net migration was trending sharply upward in the majority of nations, with Malta seeing a 35 percent increase. Lithuania, Portugal, Cyprus, Luxembourg, Spain, Ireland, Finland, and Estonia each reported net migration growth to be above 10 percent as well.
Where do Migrants Come From?
A significant wave of Ukrainian migrants swept through the European Union as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The conflict has greatly accelerated the long-standing trend of migration from EU candidate states, which began in the 1990s, motivated by the desire for better living and employment conditions.
According to the UN, in 2023, most migrants primarily came from candidate states, while the second- and third-largest groups arrived from Western Asia/Northern Africa and the Caribbean/Latin America respectively.
Given the EU’s ageing population and shrinking workforce, migration is being considered as a means of safeguarding the labour force for the future.
The Balkans and eastern Europe have endured decades of depopulation after the fall of the Iron Curtain and the Balkan conflicts, despite the current significant migrant outflows from Ukraine caused by the war. For example, Bosnia and Herzegovina is expected to lose half of its workforce by 2050, and Serbia and Albania lost more than half a million people between 2004 and 2014.
The West Gains as the East Declines
Retaining the population is not assured by EU membership.
Member states in the eastern and Balkan areas must deal with large outflows of their working-age populations and the ensuing economic and social repercussions as a result of the commission’s endorsement of “circulating skills across the EU.”
In the first few years after the eight eastern countries joined the EU in 2004, about 1.8% of their population moved to other member states, according to recent EU demography research from the Bruegel think tank. After joining in 2007, 4.1 percent migrated in just two years from Bulgaria and Romania.
The net differential between immigration and emigration from eastern European member states to other Union areas was close to 7.5 million in 2023 alone.
Western nations are by far the biggest benefactors of these movements, while Eastern Europe is the only region with a negative migration balance. Southern Europe maintains a balance with Eastern Europe but has large negative balance of migration exchange with the West. Northern Europe is mostly balanced with other regions, except for the East, while Western Europe remains the most popular destination, receiving over 6.7 million citizens.
The European Union must figure out how to achieve long-term demographic resilience as the population ages and demographic imbalances worsen.
