Now that hostilities have spread to Lebanon, a year after they first broke out in Israel, concerns regarding the stability of the Middle East have returned. This might lead to a dire situation in the East Mediterranean, especially in Cyprus.
According to Kathimerini Cyprus, severe Israeli airstrikes in the north are causing widespread humanitarian concerns by igniting fears about the possible collapse of Lebanon’s political system. As thousands of civilians in Lebanon are leaving Beirut, years of progress are being reversed, and the nation is getting closer to political unrest. The European Union (EU), which had recently extended political and financial support to Lebanon in an effort to avert precisely this kind of fallout, is becoming increasingly concerned about the situation in addition to the neighboring countries.
Cyprus is especially worried because of its close proximity to the conflict area. Fearing a sharp increase in the number of migrants arriving from Lebanon, which is a difficult situation for the island nation to handle even in more stable times, Nicosia is keeping a close eye on the situation. Cyprus is getting ready for a possible escalation in the situation, even though the evacuation of foreign nationals from Lebanon is still under control.
Cyprus Sets a Record for the Number of Residency Permits
According to Eurostat data, the European Union issued a record 3.7 million first residence permits to non-EU nationals in 2023, with Cyprus issuing 34 694 new residence permits issued in Cyprus, a decrease of 10.9 percent. This decrease marks the first one to be noted since 2013.
It is important to highlight, that most of the permits that were granted in Cyprus were for educational purposes. Permits for education were granted in Cyprus at a rate noticeably higher than those for other purposes, such as international protection, which saw a marked decline.
A Successful Collaboration on Migration Between Cyprus and Lebanon
Cyprus has sided with the EU in its support of Beirut ever since the Israel-Lebanon conflict began. Nikos Christodoulides, the president of Cyprus, has visited Lebanon twice, once with the president of the European Commission, in an effort to support the Lebanese government and avert a more serious humanitarian crisis. Thus far, there has been success in the cooperation between Cyprus and Lebanon, especially when it comes to controlling migrant flows.
By limiting the amount of migrants arriving by sea, Lebanon has been able to relieve pressure on Brussels and avert a social crisis in Cyprus. The recent escalation of hostilities, though, poses a threat to these initiatives.
With two million illegal migrants already living on Lebanon’s coast, waiting for a chance to flee to Europe, frequently via Cyprus, Nicosia’s biggest fear is that Lebanon’s political system will collapse, resulting in a new wave of refugees.
Cyprus is more hopeful about the humanitarian situation because it has learned from past crises in Lebanon in 2006 and 2022. Since no nation has yet to request assistance, the Estia project, which was created to assist in the evacuation of foreign nationals, is presently dormant. According to diplomatic sources, a full-scale evacuation is unlikely, though if needed, up to 26,000 people could be relocated; this is a far cry from the 60,000 people who were evacuated during the conflict in 2006.
Portugal, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany are among the nations that have already organized the evacuation of their citizens; the majority of them departed Lebanon on commercial aircraft. Unlike in 2006 when it was bombed and closed, trapping thousands of people, the airport is still open despite some airlines, like Cyprus Airways, suspending flights to Beirut.
Third-country nationals present a more difficult challenge to evacuate than European nationals. These people would have to register when they got to Cyprus and stay there until they could get a flight elsewhere. They usually only stay for a week or so, but rigorous security measures are in place to make sure they are unable to move around freely.
Next Stop Syria?
In the end of August, in a landmark ruling, Germany’s Supreme Administrative Court in Munster has determined that some areas of Syria can now be considered “safe,” despite the ongoing civil war. The court rejected the subsidiary protection claim of a Syrian man from Hasakah, stating that the region no longer poses a serious threat to life or physical integrity. This ruling is expected to influence future deportations and returns, a prospect welcomed by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who has advocated for stricter deportation policies.
This decision overturns the country’s previous stance and aligns with Nicosia’s approach to the refugee and migrant crisis. Nicosia has long argued for the designation of certain Syrian regions as “safe” to facilitate the return of refugees from Cyprus. The court’s decision aligns with these goals, creating optimism in Cyprus that the European Union may follow suit.