Maybe the biggest refugee group in Europe saw what they would never have thought of: the fall of the regime from which they escaped. On Sunday, there were unplanned protests and rallies around the continent to celebrate the end of Bashar al-Assad’s terror regime in Damascus. France24 reports that thousands of Syrians celebrated the overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad on Sunday by gathering in Berlin and other European cities, waving flags and singing joyfully.
On X, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz wrote: “Today we stand with all Syrians who are full of hope for a free, just, and safe Syria.” Scholz’s country has long welcomed Syrian refugees seeking asylum. Germany intends to contribute in any way to “a political solution to the conflict in Syria” alongside other international partners, Scholz continued.
Spring Turned To War, Turned to Escape
As the Arab Spring swept the region in 2011, Syria descended into a full-scale civil war. Later, Islamic State fighters seized vast areas of the country before being routed by a coalition of regional and foreign forces.
Assad’s government is charged with overseeing the widespread use of torture within the regime’s infamous prisons, the indiscriminate destruction of civilian areas, the use of chemical weapons in violation of international law, and the arbitrary detention of innocent people.
Angela Merkel, the German chancellor at the time, famously said, “We can do this!” when a million refugees, many of whom were from Syria, arrived in Europe in 2015.
Since then, nearly 4.5 million Syrians—nearly a fifth of the nation’s pre-war population—have fled to Europe to avoid the ongoing humanitarian crisis and the currently stalled civil war. Nearly 1.3 million Syrians received international protection from the EU between 2015 and 2023.
Germany Might Be Relieved, Judging by the Numbers
According to the UNHCR, the UN agency for refugees, Germany is currently the largest host nation in Europe and the third-largest host nation in the world for Syrian refugees, so the situation may also have an impact on the Syrian diaspora in Europe.
According to the Federal Employment Agency, there are currently about 900,000 Syrians in Germany, up from about 30,000 at the beginning of Assad’s civil war in 2011. Of these, almost 40% were employed in early 2024.
Syrians in Europe: What Now?
A spokesperson for the Interior Ministry led by the Social Democrats (SPD/S&D) told Funke Mediengruppe on Sunday that it is still unclear if the fall of Assad would result in the departure of refugees or the arrival of even more in Germany.
However, the government is already under increased pressure to crack down on the refugee population from the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU/EPP), who are leading the polls ahead of the next national elections.
Andrea Lindholz, the party’s top home affairs lawmaker, told the Rheinische Post on Sunday that many Syrians would “no longer need protection and therefore no longer have the right to stay in Germany” once there is enduring peace in Syria.
Scholz emphasized the need for a peaceful transition in Syria in his speech on Sunday, but his party already worries that the topic is being used unfairly.
“There is nothing to stop people who never really felt at home here from returning if peace returns to Syria,” SPD lawmaker Michael Roth, who chairs the foreign affairs committee of the German parliament, told SPIEGEL.
He did, however, add that the majority of Syrians are successfully assimilated into both the workforce and society.
Roth cautioned against a populist discussion that goes something like, “Now everyone has to go back immediately.”
“I worry that during the election campaign, some [Christian Democrats] will make this demand in addition to the [far-right] AfD and the [left-populist] BSW. I’m worried about that,” he continued.