The heightened tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan potentially trigger another refugee crisis.
After 2001, Islamabad sheltered Taliban leaders as they mounted a rebellion against the Washington-backed Afghan government. Shortly after the Taliban returned to power, Pakistan’s intelligence chief was among the first foreign officials to publicly visit Kabul.
The deterioration of relations stems from the Taliban’s inability to control the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a militant group founded in 2007 to oppose the Pakistani state.
After the Taliban’s takeover in 2021, negotiations between Pakistan and the TTP led to a brief ceasefire, but talks faltered following political changes in Pakistan. With over 600 security personnel killed in 2025, Islamabad blames the TTP, with implications of support from India, for the violence. While the Taliban denied the presence of TTP militants, they privately acknowledged the group’s influence and refused to surrender its leaders, complicating relations further as many border Afghans share an anti-Pakistani sentiment.
After the TTP killed 11 military personnel on 8 October, Pakistan conducted cross-border airstrikes, including its first ever on Kabul, ostensibly targeting TTP chief Noor Wali Mehsud. Afghanistan retaliated with attacks on Pakistani military installations. Continued fighting claimed military and civilian lives on both sides. Reportedly, only pressure from Turkey and Qatar stopped Pakistan from launching more extensive raids aimed at decapitating the TTP. Talks between Afghan and Pakistani defence ministers in Doha, Qatar, in October yielded a ceasefire.
A ceasefire was briefly established through talks, yet tensions remained high and trade halted. The Taliban’s growing ties with India fuel Pakistan’s apprehensions. Both countries risk larger conflicts in the wake of potential militant attacks, echoing past confrontations with India and Afghanistan.
There have been outbreaks of violence along the border since. On February 16, a suicide bomber killed eleven Pakistani security personnel and a child at a border security checkpoint, according to Pakistani military reports. On February 22, Islamabad carried out air strikes in eastern and southeastern Afghanistan, targeting what Pakistani officials said were militant camps.
On March 16, tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan heated up again after Pakistan launched an air strike on a drug rehabilitation center in Afghanistan’s capital, Kabul.
Pakistan has declared “open war” on Afghanistan after fighting intensified over recent weeks. In a dangerous escalation from cross-border skirmishes, Pakistan launched air strikes at the end of February, targeting major cities including Kabul. Afghanistan’s Taliban regime responded with drone attacks. Both sides blame the other for the conflict.
More than 1,000 people are estimated to have been killed or injured, and 100,000 displaced. It also waged a massive campaign of terror across Pakistan between 2007 and 2014, which also caused huge casaulties.
In one air strike on a Kabul drug rehabilitation centre last week, 400 people were killed, according to Afghan officials. With a ceasefire to mark the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Fitr set to expire, there are no signs of a desire for de-escalation.
Pakistan Deporting Afghan Migrants Since 2023
For over four decades, Pakistan sheltered millions of Afghans fleeing war, instability, and Taliban rule. However, in October 2023, the government announced a major crackdown on undocumented foreigners, most of whom were Afghans, setting a deadline for voluntary departure and initiating mass deportations soon after.
In October 2023, the Pakistani government announced that it would expel all unregistered migrants, dubbed as the Illegal Foreigners’ Repatriation Plan.
The scheme has sparked fears among the country’s nearly two million undocumented Afghans.
According to the government, the measure was necessary to stem the growing influence of terrorist groups operating in its border region. The Pakistani officials also argued that because of the rising inflation and unemployment, the country can no longer host such a large refugee population.
They denied that the scheme was targeting Afghan refugees fleeing conflict, poverty, or Taliban authority.
The issue has sparked criticism from the United Nations, the United States, and human rights organizations, who have called on Islamabad to halt deportations and fulfill international obligations of proper treatment of refugees.
Make things worse, Pakistan has never ratified the 1951 Geneva Convention and thus lacks domestic protections for refugees. Nonetheless, rights advocates warned that deportations still violate international human rights norms and put the refugees in a dangerous situation.
The humanitarian impact has been severe, with hundreds of thousands returning to a country already struggling with poverty and limited resources. While Pakistan continues to defend the policy as necessary, it remains controversial, highlighting the tension between national interests and humanitarian responsibilities.
The Scale of Deportations
In February 2025, the Pakistani government announced that Afghan refugees were required to vacate Islamabad and Rawalpindi by 31 March, with forcible expulsions set to commence on 1 April.
This resulted in about a million Afghans being expelled from Pakistan and a further 323,581 until July, 2025, according to the IOM.
On February 5, 2025, the UN refugee and migration agencies, UNHCR and IOM, raised concern over the mass deportations targeting Afghan nationals, including refugees, documented and undocumented migrants, and those awaiting transfer to Western nations.
The answer came after Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif approved a proposal to relocate Afghans from Islamabad and Rawalpindi to designated camps before deportation. The UN agencies requested clarity on the plan’s timing and encouraged Pakistan to observe human rights standards, including due process for Afghan Citizen Card holders, who numbered over 800,000.
International actors, particularly the UNHCR, have consistently urged Pakistan to
establish a national refugee law.
While some refugees, particularly those with documented status, can benefit from limited protections, the majority of Afghans – especially undocumented or recently arrived individuals – remain in a state of legal uncertainty.
