Irregular migration remains in high demand, despite a decrease in arrivals from 2023 to 2024.
The Western Mediterranean and Central Mediterranean Routes (CMR) experienced a decline in traffic, which contributed to the aggregate decrease in numbers between 2023 and 2024. Nevertheless, the forces that motivate migration persist, and the hostile environment that migrants encounter in transit countries is also on the rise.
As noted in a recent MMC report, this recent decline may be indicative of a short-term fluctuation rather than a long-term trend in the use of the Central Mediterranean route.
However, the report emphasized that it is more likely to be indicative of a temporary fluctuation than the commencement of the final phase of irregular sea migrations to the EU. Additionally, there have been substantial fluctuations in the main routes into the European Union; as one route experiences a decline, others experience a surge or reemergence.
CMR Remains a Major Route for Migrants
The CMR figures toward the end of 2024 also indicate an upward trend that may persist into 2025. Although politicians have asserted that the numerous agreements and policies that were implemented in 2023 and 2024 have effectively decreased the number of arrivals along the CMR, it continues to be the most frequently used irregular sea route into mainland Europe.
The CMR has experienced fluctuations in the past, suggesting that it could potentially increase once more, as it did from 2021 onwards following the previous significant decline following 2017.
What are the Primary Factors of the Decline?
The Libyan and Tunisian coastlines have received substantial resources from the EU and Italy. To prevent vessels from crossing, guards will be deployed. Additionally, Italy has implemented additional restrictions on search and rescue operations since 2023.
The EU has maintained its longstanding partnership with Libya. In 2023, the EU reached an agreement with Tunisia to invest 150 million euros in order to, among other objectives, prevent migrant boats from departing its shores. Subsequently, in March 2024, a €7.4 billion agreement was reached with Egypt in response to the conflict in Sudan and the displacement of half a million Sudanese citizens to Egypt.
Record Low Arrivals Trough the CMR
Italy recorded 9,168 irregular sea arrivals in 2025 as of March 30, a 17 percent decrease from the same period in 2024 and a 43 percent decrease from the previous quarter.
The majority of individuals arriving in Italy by sea (93 percent, or 8,502 individuals) departed from Libya, with a lesser number of individuals arriving from Tunisia and Algeria. In a manner similar to the previous quarter, departures from Libya decreased by 25%, while those from Tunisia decreased by 89 percent.
Pakistanis (18 percent), Syrians (10 percent), and Egyptians (10 percent) comprised the greatest contingent of immigrants to Italy this quarter. The increasing number of Bangladeshi and Pakistani arrivals in Italy is consistent with previous reports of these nationalities’ increased utilization of Libya as a transit point.
The overall decrease in numbers may be associated with Tunisia’s more stringent migration restrictions, particularly interceptions. In 2024, a minimum of 66,000 migrants were intercepted, and 1,400 were apprehended.