The majority of Africans leave Africa in legal ways, despite anti-immigrant sentiment and European politicians’ embrace of nativism. African migration will likely continue in the coming decades, expanding the diasporas worldwide.
For instance, in 2001, there were only 5,000 Africans in Scotland, or 0.1 percent of the population. By the time of the most recent census, in 2022, that population had surged more than 11-fold and will most likely have grown faster afterward.
As the Economist found in its analysis, it may appear unlikely when Donald Trump is deporting migrants, European leaders are adopting nativism, and media coverage of African migration focuses on the unlawful in leaking dinghies. However, the vast majority of Africans depart the continent in routine, legal methods. Despite rising anti-immigrant sentiment, this type of migration has been on the rise. It is likely to continue to develop in the future decades, extending African diasporas over the world. The tendency will have far-reaching consequences for recipient countries and Africa as a whole.
The growth is driven by the remarkable demographic divide between Africa, the world’s youngest continent with the fastest-growing population, and the rest of the globe. With 40 percent of its population aged 14 and under. Niger, Uganda, and Angola had the youngest populations in Africa as of 2023. Labour is growing increasingly abundant in Africa while becoming scarce elsewhere.
By 2025 The sub-Saharan Working Population Will Triple
McKinsey, a consulting firm, released a report earlier this year on the “new demographic reality”. It states that a “first wave” of countries, including the United States, China, Japan, South Korea, and all of Europe, will see their working-age population (15- to 64-year-olds) decline by approximately 340 million by 2050. Longer lifetimes, particularly dropping fertility rates, have reduced the “support ratio” of working-age persons to those over 65 in certain areas from 7:1 in 1997 to 4:1 currently. By 2050, the ratio will be just 2:1.
The exception is Sub-Saharan Africa. Fertility rates are declining there as well, albeit at a slower rate and from a greater baseline. The region is decades behind in its “demographic transition”. By 2050, its working-age population will have increased by approximately 700 million, virtually tripling. By 2030, about half of new workers entering the global labour force will come from Sub-Saharan Africa.
According to figures from 2024, the median age in Africa was 19.2 years, which means that half of the population was older and half was younger than that age. The median age in the continent has climbed since 2000, when it was around 17 years.
15 Million to Enter the sub-Saharan Labour Market
It is obvious that these young people would struggle to obtain employment at home. Every year, around 15 million people enter the employment market in Sub-Saharan Africa, with just 3 million formal positions generated. Afrobarometer, a pollster, discovered this year that
almost the half of Africans in 24 nations had considered moving, with nearly a third of the people giving it “a lot of thought”—an increase of nine and ten percentage points, respectively, from the last round of surveys in 2016-2018.
The propensity to migrate from a given country follows a pattern that, when plotted against GDP per person (adjusted for cost of living), creates a bell curve. Emigration increases as countries’ per capita incomes approach $5,000, peaks around $10,000, and then drops. People in poor countries do not have the resources to flee. They are not required by the wealthy. In the middle, they have both the will and the wherewithal.
Meanwhile, 94% of Sub-Saharan Africans (1.1 billion people) live in countries with per capita GDPs of less than $10,000.
A Necessity of the African Workforce
However, the anti-immigrant politics of the recipient countries may appear to be immovable. But restraining the potential workforce will incur political costs.
In Britain, it would make it more difficult to recruit nurses and doctors for the National Health Service. Everywhere, it would imply turning to unpalatable solutions to address worker shortages and fund welfare states, such as reducing benefits or raising retirement ages.
Before becoming Italy’s prime minister, Giorgia Meloni promised to reduce immigration. Italy has given more non-EU work visas since she took office.
Africans made up 15 percent of the world’s emigrants, back in 1990, 35 percent of African migrants lived abroad. Share is 45 percent today which is about 20.7m people.
According to the UN, Africans living in Europe climbed from 4m to 10.6m between 1990 and 2024—half of all African migrants outside the continent, just 1m in Britain.
The children of these immigrants tend to score higher on educational tests than students from the majority population. In British sport, they have their own heroes, such as Maro Itoje, England’s rugby captain, who has Nigerian parents. In politics, the current leader of the Conservative Party, Kemi Badenoch, grew up in Lagos.
Mutually Beneficial Cooperations
In 2024, Kenya established a preliminary migration agreement with Germany, aimed at addressing job shortages by allowing Kenyans to work in the country. In return Germany would finance vocational courses and language training. Kenya possesses a specialised cabinet ministry focused on diaspora affairs, which organises job fairs throughout the nation. William Ruto, the president of Kenya, has stated: “Kenya’s workforce is our greatest resource.”
The government aims to facilitate the export of 1 million Kenyans annually over the next three years, a figure that aligns closely with the number of new individuals entering the Kenyan workforce.
Other countries are considering comparable initiatives to encourage the concept of “emigration as an export.” At the beginning of this year, Ethiopia communicated with Norway and several other European nations regarding the potential export of nurses.
Tanzania is in the process of negotiating migration agreements with eight nations, including the United Arab Emirates, as reported by Reuters.
