Dutch far-right lawmaker Geert Wilders was forced to pause his election campaign last week after Belgian authorities revealed he was a potential target of a suspected terror cell. Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever was also among the alleged list of targets.
Wilders said he owed it to his supporters to continue his campaign, adding that he has lived under constant protection for 21 years because of “countless death threats of all shapes and sizes.” He stated that he can no longer imagine walking by himself on the streets.
His policies are divisive: banning Islamic headscarves in public buildings and the Quran and putting Islamic schools and mosques into koelkast – the fridge. He emphasizes that he would “put the Dutch back as number one” by denying all asylum applications, dismantling asylum facilities, and increasing deportations.
These policies were included in his 10-point plan he put before the previous ruling coalition to deliver on his election promises. When the coalition failed to meet his deadline, his Party for Freedom pulled out, collapsing the government.
With the snap election happening next week and the far-right polling highest, is migration as out of control in the Netherlands as Wilders makes it out to be?
How Many Asylum Seekers Are There in the Netherlands?
According to the Dutch Immigration and Naturalization Service (IND), first-time asylum applications have been steadily decreasing since the final quarter of 2023, when 12 975 people made their first application for asylum in the span of three months.
In total, IND recorded 45 639 asylum applications (including first-time, repeated, and family reunion applications) in 2024, compared to a record 49 892 in 2023. Up until September, there have been 30 083 total applications in 2025, compared to 34,740 in the same period last year, suggesting the downward trend continues.
Despite this, the Central Agency for the Reception of Asylum Seekers (COA) reported 77 444 entitled to shelter, with 38 699 in regular locations and 31 355 in emergency locations as of 13 October 2025. About 7,390 are outside the COA, who may be staying in municipal shelters or overnight accommodations.
Due to the Asylum Distribution Act, municipalities are expected to share the burden equally, requiring them to create housing for asylum seekers. They frequently report this being an issue due to lack of space, backlash from locals, and slow answers to queries from the COA and “erratic national policy” from The Hague. These expansions of asylum housing are to be stopped under Wilders’ plans.
The IND also criticized government moves on asylum policy, since its implementation requires more staff, and government ambiguity on specifics also obstructs execution.
So, even with a decline, asylum seekers are still incoming, but their housing is what causes most problems for the government.
Population: Where Migration is Key
The Netherlands is no different from its western counterparts in population trends: deaths outnumber births, while positive net migration (immigration outnumbering emigration) drives small but steady population growth.
Statistics Netherlands reported that while growth was lower than in previous years, the population grew by an estimated 103 000 people in 2024, down by over 30 thousand compared to 2023, due to slightly higher rates of emigration and lower immigration.
“In every year since 2022, the death rate has exceeded the birth rate. Now, population growth is attributable entirely to migration: more people have been coming to live in the Netherlands than emigrating.”
The State Commission on Demographic Developments also argued in early 2024 that a shrinking population would lead to economic decline, and while population decline can be easily predicted, migration tendencies cannot.
As such, they advised the government to continue to attract migrant workers but introduce more control on asylum migration and better management of labor migration. While this could lead to the shrinking of labor-heavy industries, it would alleviate immediate issues with migration.
The Social and Economic Council (SER) also gave similar remarks this year, saying a “future-proof economy” requires controlled growth with “greater enforcement and monitoring capacity.” They recommend doing so by utilizing and securing the labor force already in the state, improving the legal position of low-paid workers, investing in labor-saving technologies, and cooperating with the EU to better control migration from outside the bloc. This involves attracting skilled workers and students while targeting tradespeople for critical sectors (care, technology, and energy) only.
Economy: Migrants as a Choice
While rhetoric suggests migrant workers take away jobs from the Dutch, in reality, natives have moved into other sectors while low-paying jobs with worse conditions were struggling without people to employ. These sectors now rely on bringing in foreign workers but do not displace Dutch workers.
“In recent years, the labor market has been exceptionally tight. This is evident from the high level of labor market participation and the low unemployment rate. Labor is in high demand, and there are many migrant workers working in the Netherlands – around one million,” says Olaf van Vliet, Professor of Economics at Leiden University.
“Substantial parts of the Dutch economy, such as horticulture, abattoirs, construction, logistics and distribution, are largely dependent on migrant workers. (…) Migrant workers are therefore hugely important to the economy.”
Imke van Gardingen, a lawyer at the Federation of Dutch Trade Unions, argues that this, however, was an economic choice. “The Netherlands has chosen to be Europe’s logistics hub. And if a local authority allows an abattoir in a zoning plan, it also allows migrant workers. Economic interest is given priority in such cases, but the people who will be working there also need to be housed,” she says.
The housing issue, just like with asylum migration, emerges with labor migration, suggesting that the housing market is set to be another important debate during the election.
The migration rate of highly skilled workers from outside the EU significantly declined in 2024, but this kind of labor migration remains the highest, compared to migration from within the EU and Dutch nationals returning after emigrating.
Public Opinion Turns
Recent polls suggest voters are fragmented across the spectrum, but Wilders’ PVV continues to lead by a few percentage points. Since the party’s focus is migration, their communication greatly contributes to public discourse concentrating on it as well.
Meanwhile, anti-migration protests rock the country. Just last week, at least 29 people were arrested in Amsterdam after protesters clashed with police.
In September a similar event shook The Hague, the political capital of the country, with about 1200 people mobilizing against “failures in asylum policy.” Mayor Jan van Zanen called it “an unprecedented outburst of violence, unworthy of the Netherlands,” injuring two officers and forcing police to disperse the crowd using water cannons and tear gas.
The violence was condemned by both sides of the spectrum: Wilders, caretaker Prime Minister Dick Schoof, and D66 party leader Rob Jetten, whose party office was targeted by rioters.
Despite this, migrants and foreigners are often the scapegoats of complex issues, like the housing crisis.
The Big Bad: Housing Crisis
In mid-2024, NL Times reported a shortage of 401,000 homes, equivalent to 4.9 percent of the housing stock. There are several socioeconomic reasons for this, however. The lack of space is due to the high population density, fiscal constrictions, and rising prices of construction.
The social housing market is also overcrowded: people who no longer meet the criteria to remain in social housing units are unable to leave due to the lack of affordable private housing.
Critics point out that, while immigration contributes, the housing crisis would already be an issue without migration.
However, that contribution is the reason for its salience in public opinion, as residents see effects in their immediate surroundings. Many believe the overabundance of labor migrants pushes market prices, forcing locals out while migrants receive housing from the government.
Is Migration the Most Pressing Matter in the Election?
Wilders’ party quitting the coalition due to the matter makes migration policy the reason for the election, but is it the most important issue?
While the government, once elected, faces budgetary issues and a shaky economy, the most pressing issues can be traced back to migration, though not irregular asylum seekers. However, in these instances, migration is frequently only a contributing factor.
Housing prices, a shrinking labor market, and the rising number of migrant workers in the country all lead to the public blaming those arriving; however, this is the result of complex economic choices that are now causing wider problems.
But whoever the country chooses to solve these issues will determine how it is framed and thus whether the far-right rhetoric will incite violence against those already in the country. Control over migration is necessary, but as experts highlight, labor migration is more pressing than asylum seekers and even necessary for the country’s economic growth to continue.
