Italy is concerned about Russia’s expanding involvement in Libya, which includes weaponry supply and a planned naval base in Tobruk, as migrant flows increase. Meanwhile, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis announced the suspension of asylum applications for Libyan migrants who arrived in Crete.
Alarms sent by Greece and Italy
Italy and Greece, both heavily vulnerable to migration, argue that, given that migrant flows from Libya are spiking again, the growing influence of Russia and Turkey in an unstable North African region that includes Libya creates security threats for Europe.
According to Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani, Libya is “an emergency that Europe must address together.” Unsurprisingly, the Greek government completely shares Rome’s concerns over Libya, as it struggles to cope with an increase of arrivals from Libya on the island of Crete.
In early July, Athens delayed the processing of asylum applications for people arriving in Greece by sea from North Africa, citing an emergency situation requiring emergency measures. As part of a vicious spiral, the Greek actions have also generated fears in Italy that additional migrants may be forced into Italian waters.
It is important to note that Greece’s announcement about the stop of processing applications came a day after the EU’s Internal Affairs and Migration Commissioner Magnus Brunner, and ministers from Italy, Malta, and Greece, were denied entry to the eastern part of divided Libya and declared persona non grata by the Benghazi-based government ahead of a scheduled migration meeting.
Following this incident, and taking into account Italy and Greece’s fundamental concerns, France stated that Libya is a critical issue, adding that for Italy, the question of Libya is, of course, more pressing in the short term than for France, which has a so-called declining military footprint in North and West Africa. Later, Malta raised concerns with the EU about an upsurge in migration through Libya.
🇬🇷 🚣In light of the increase in arrivals on the Greek islands of Crete and Gavdos, Greece intends to halt large-scale legalisation programmes for migrants and to detain those awaiting deportation. These measures set effect this summer. 🫒
Read our article ⬇️
— FactRefuge (@FactRefuge) July 11, 2025
Libya’s Partnership with Turkey and Russia is a Major Concern
Aside from migratory concerns over Libya, Turkey’s actions near the Greek coast (South of Crete) are also causing anxiety in Greece. According to Greek reports, Turkey is collaborating with Libya to divide the Mediterranean into maritime zones for oil exploration. According to Athens, this violates international maritime law.
According to Politico, Russia’s role in Libya is expanding, with the country serving as the primary node in its African strategy.
Sources suggest that a politically connected smuggling network in Libya is aiding Russia’s strategic goals, allowing Moscow to bypass sanctions and weaponize migration.
The situation at the Belarusian-Polish border clearly shows that migration from Libya can be utilized against the EU in a hybrid conflict.
Furthermore, the situation in Libya raises the prospect that, with Russia and Turkey’s growing influence, the EU’s geopolitical weight in North Africa will continue to dwindle, not to mention the possibility that Russia is simply attempting to establish a new strategic buffer zone in the same region and may use migration as a tool in a hybrid war.
In military terms, after losing its bastion in Syria, Russia is undoubtedly looking for a new stronghold in the Mediterranean, and Libya appears to be an attractive alternative for this role.
The North African country is a suitable location for a replacement naval port, rather than the lost Russian facility at Tartus. Furthermore, experts claim that Moscow intends to put missile systems at a military site in southern Libya.
Recall of the Rise of Islamic Terrorist Attacks
Although an EU Commission spokesperson admitted that the Commision is concerned about the situation in Libya and the recent increase in irregular departures,” the EU has not taken any major action to prevent a European migration crisis similar to the one caused by political instability in Tunisia a decade ago.
There was a sharp increase in Islamic terrorist acts in Europe following 2014. According to experts, the years 2014-2016 saw more individuals killed by Islamic terrorist attacks in Europe than the previous years combined, as well as the highest annual rate of attack plots.
Many of these attacks were perpetrated by Tunisians. These include the terrorist incident in Nice on July 14, 2016, by Mohamed Lahouaiej-Bouhlel, which killed 86 people. Another example is the case of Anis Amri, who on December 19, 2016, drove a vehicle into a Christmas market in Berlin, killing 12. In 2020, Tunisian native Brahim Aouissaoui stabbed and killed three people in Nice’s Notre-Dame Basilica.
To Avoid a New Migration Crisis
Based on the lessons learned from severe consequences that hit Europe between 2014 and 2016, it is reasonable to expect that unless adequate measures are taken, not only refugees fleeing a humanitarian crisis will be heading for Europe from Libya, but also weapons, drugs, human trafficking, and extremism, all of which will have a significant negative impact on Europe. In light of this, Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis stated that “with the suspension of asylum applications from Libya, the Greek government is sending a hard message: the route to Greece is closing, and that message is directed at all human traffickers.”
Although Tunisia could have served as a valuable lesson for the EU, it appears that the bloc’s political leadership has yet to become committed to protecting the continent from another migration crisis, this time most likely from Libya.
As long as the EU refuses to invest more in prevention, despite the fact that Italy, Greece, France, and Malta are raising the alarm, we can only hope that von der Leyen and her fellow Brussels bureaucrats do not want to wait for another – this time a Libyan – migration crisis.
