After the December overthrow of Assad, 500,000 Syrian refugees returned to Syria, revealed UN High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi on X last week. In March, the International Organization for Migration’s (IOM) Displacement Tracking Matrix reported 1.2 million internally displaced Syrians have returned home since December 2024.
Andreas Floistrup, a UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) spokesperson, says the trend is positive but not ideal.
“It is really positive that we now see that over half a million Syrian refugees have returned voluntarily to Syria after the Assad regime fell in December last year. But at the same time, it is also important to emphasize that it is an extremely difficult situation that they are returning home to.”
A UNHCR survey estimates that 16.7 million Syrians – 90 percent of the population – need humanitarian aid.
When did the Syrian Refugee Crisis Begin?
As part of the Arab Spring, in March 2011 there was a harsh government crackdown on public demonstrations in support of adolescents who were detained for anti-government graffiti in southern Syria. The conflict swiftly worsened, and the country slid into civil war, causing millions of Syrian families to escape their homes.
Fourteen years later, more than 16.7 million people in Syria require humanitarian aid, representing 70 percent of the population.
What is the present scenario in Syria?
The collapse of the Assad regime in December 2024 has prompted spontaneous returns to Syria. Since the end of November 2024, more than a million Syrians have returned home, including 301,967 Syrians from neighbouring countries such as Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan, as well as 885,294 internally displaced refugees.
In the midst of a worsening humanitarian crisis, Syria’s interim government, led by the insurgent group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), is at a critical juncture in its efforts to rebuild and reintegrate citizens returning to their homes. The Syrian president Ahmed al-Sharaa, formerly head of HTS, is making an effort to have himself and his country recognized by the international community.
In light of the recent developments in Syria, the UNHCR undertook a comprehensive regional survey aimed at gaining insights into the perspectives of Syrian refugees regarding their potential return to Syria. Currently, over 80 percent of refugees express a desire to eventually return to Syria, marking a significant change from the earlier figure, which showed that only 57 percent held such aspirations. In a comparable manner, the short-term intention to return has experienced a notable rise, with 27 percent of Syrian refugees expressing their intent to return within the next twelve months, a substantial increase from the previous figure of 1.7 percent. It is anticipated that spontaneous returns will persist throughout the year 2025.
Around 6.6 Million IDPs in Syria
According to the latest report by IOM, the number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) declined slightly in April 2025 to around 6.6 million,
compared to more than 6.7 million in March. Since January 2024, the UN migration branch said it has recorded over 1.3 million IDP returnees.
IOM provides shelter rehabilitation, distribution of life-saving items, and expansion of the property records database to support secure documentation, restitution, and dispute resolution for displaced populations in Syria. IOM has recently announced its Syria crisis response plan for 2025 appealing for 100 million US dollars to target about 1.4 million people in Syria with critical aid and support.
President Ahmed al-Sharaa has engaged in a process of reconciliation with various minority groups, notably including leaders from the Druze and Christian communities. Although Christians face minimal threats, their connection to the Islamist regime is not as profound. Nevertheless, the Alawite minority, constituting 10 percent of the population, has been the principal backing of Assad’s regime, leading to significant apprehensions among them, particularly in light of the recent atrocities that have come to light.
The government has failed to deliver on certain commitments it made to the populace. For instance, public servants were assured a 400 percent increase in their remuneration. In contrast, public servants were initially without any remuneration for the first two months; they now receive a salary, yet it remains the case that not all benefit from the augmented amount. The power supply presents yet another issue. The nation’s economic predicament is grave, and the path to recovery remains uncertain.
“There are still battles in several places in Syria, which still force people to flee to this day, and this clearly represents great uncertainty – also for those who are considering returning home,” Andreas Floistrup explains.
Trump and the EU Lift Sanctions
US President Donald Trump announced on May 14 that he has ordered the lifting of US sanctions on Syria to give the country ‘a chance for greatness’.
Most shocking example? Syria.
Trump lifted ALL sanctions on Syria – unthinkable under traditional diplomacy.
Why? Commercial opportunity and regional stability.
This is disruption by design—with enormous stakes. pic.twitter.com/SufdJP3rgD
— Karl Mehta (@karlmehta) May 17, 2025
For many European host countries of Syrian migrants, it is important that Syria become a stable country to send these people back and that irregular migrants do not come to Europe from there. To that end, the European Union has approved donating 2.5 billion in support if Syria commits to the democratic transition. Moreover, Brussels has also lifted economic sanctions on Syria in a bid to help the war-torn country’s recovery, the 27-nation bloc’s foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said on Tuesday.
What Are the Key Challenges Faced by Syrians?
Poverty and unemployment are prevalent in Syria, with more than 90 percent of the population residing below the poverty threshold. An estimated 12.9 million individuals experience food insecurity due to the economic crisis.
The circumstances for Syrian refugees residing in adjacent host nations have worsened. The economic difficulties in neighbouring nations such as Lebanon have driven Syrians within the country into destitution, with over 90 percent of Syrian refugees dependent on humanitarian aid for survival. In Jordan, almost 93 percent of Syrian households indicated they are in debt to meet essential requirements. Ninety percent of Syrian refugees residing in Türkiye are unable to adequately meet their monthly expenses or fundamental demands.
Millions of refugees have forfeited their livelihoods and are progressively unable to satisfy their fundamental necessities, including access to clean water, electricity, food, medicine, and rent payments. The economic recession has shown their vulnerability to various protection hazards, including child labour, gender-based abuse, early marriage, and other forms of exploitation.
